One month to go, and Obama at the moment is favourite in my opinion

My first post made reference to there being just under five weeks to go til polling day in the States.

As October begins, the Opinion polls in each individual state would point to a General Election victory for Barrack Obama with an overall college majority of 50.

Under my current forecast, using the main statewide vote for each candidate, Obama would receive 292 college votes. Well above the levels achieved by Bush in 2000 and 2004 but down on the results that Bill Clinton had in 1992 and 1996, the last time the Democrats won the White House Race.

McCain would receive a college vote of 233 with the remaining 9 going to third party candidates, most likely to be Ralph Nader.

One thing I have felt looking at the poll results is that Florida is Now almost too close to call and the Out-going President's Home state has the two main candidates each locked on 47%. If Florida was to swich to Democrats, ten Obama would be on 319, McCain on 206 and the others 9, more than doubling the Obama camp's majority to 104 votes in the college. The biggest majority for a President since Clinton defeated Dole with a majority of 220 in the 1996 election.

Again it seems like the Vote is a Youth vs Experience. For the second time in 15 years, the Candidate for the Reps in 72, and the youngest Presidential candidate since the War for the Republicans was the 47 year old Richard Nixon in 1960, After that its Bush Jnr, at 54 in 2000, Then it goes to Ford at 63 for his first full term, Bush Snr at 64 in 1988, and Raegan at 69 in 1980. Then it comes to Dole, who lost in 1996 and McCain, who's dithering after his nomination when he had months in hand on the Democrats could seemingly have lost him the 2008 election.

The Padster