Labour going to make up ground?

Looking at the UK Elect forecast for the 2009/2010 general election, it seems like Labour have half a chance at keeping power. Far from my thoughts;

The UK Elect forecast is this

Labour: 260 (down 96 on 2005)
Conservatives: 338 (up 140 on 2005)
Liberal Democrats: 21 (down 41 on 2005)
Others: 31 (up one on 2005)

This tally includes the Speaker Michael Martin as a Labour MP

CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY OF 26



This is the first anomoly that I have found with many of my feelings and other sources have seen the Conservatives almost waltzing into Downing Street with a large majority. The Electoral Calculus prediction is of 86 seats, which would translate on a 152 seat swing from Lab to Con. In my mind I think the 140 seat gain for the Tories, similar to Labours gain of 147 in 1997 would still only put them on 338, so the majority of 26 may have some bearing. In my mind I think that the majority will be 56-80 ish because the lead of the Tories in all the polls is seemingly too much not to reflect a landslide for the government. But in comparison in 1997. Labour were only 59 seats away from government at the start of the 1992-97 term with 271 seats, so 147 seats would put them well above what they needed. The Conservatives need much much more, 128 seats to get a majority of two seats so if they are making a gain of 140 it may well only result in a small majority.

For me the next Parliament is now less and less likely to go to five years. We may see PM Cameron needing to steering the parliament either in a style of John Major, working with a small majority of MP's before building it in either a short term parliament or a long term parliament, which could damage his chances of getting a second term.

But then Mrs T. only took 339 seats in 1979 and then 397 in 1983, Perhaps if the majority is over 35 seats then a normal parliament may ensue.

But the UK Elect result suggests that there is still hope for Labour and still work to do for the Tories if they want to win their first victory for 16, and by the election itself 18 years.