Downing Street cool on Shuffle.

So it seems that if Ruth Kelly is still in a job in the Cabinet she'll still need to keep it.

Thats if she hasn't resigned. Since she said she would step down.


Downing Street has been very quiet about the reshuffle saying that the PM has more pressing concerns for him to be pushing on with. Notably Brown will be heading to Paris to hold talks about the state of the world economy, Which we know is struggling but could be on the up after the US Senate decided to vote yes on the bail-out plan.

Other than that aside it seems that Brown needs to be doing some work to try and save the sinking Labour party at the next election. Looking at polls compared to the 2005 General Election the Tories would have a 12% in their favour, which would mean a swing of 15% from the second landslide in 2001.

At the moment, based on the 12% swing from the 2005 Election the new Commons would be like this

Conservative 407
Labour 184
Liberal Democrats 33
Others 26

CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY OF 164.

The First Landslide for a Tory government since the 1987 election.

Hewitt, Milburn, Straw, Clarke, Darling, Kelly - all gone.



If the swing went the other way however, Cameron would lose his seat.


The 9 point lead however is smaller and smaller than it used to be, and the Conservatives still need the 7% swing to get a majority of 1. Its only once they get it does it build up all the time.

Anyone feel that the Tories getting 400 seats is too much based on having just 198 seats from 2005.

But whoevers promoted to the cabinet knows that they may be back in the dole queue like the bigweights mentioned above by June 2010.