Sorry I've been away, the system has been sorting itself out, the Spam thing is a problem but then it solves a lot of problems.
Take Care, and I'll be back tomorrow
The Padster
Saturday, 11 October 2008
Monday, 6 October 2008
One year on....
A year ago, Labour had a 14 pt lead in the polls. Surely GB would go for an election and try to secure Labour their fourth term.
IN A GENERAL, LABOUR WOULD HAVE WON 401, CONSERVATIVES 188, LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 33 AND THE OTHERS 28. GIVING THE GOVERNMENT A MAJORITY OF 152.
But he knew a lot of things that we didnt know, and that we wouldnt have needed to know until after the election.
So why did Bottler Brown not go for an election?
Surely with a 150 majority in the Commons to return to, he'd have looked forward to a fifth term for Labour, and a guarantee that Labour would deliver the Olympic Games.
Now, one year later it seems like he'll need to go to the end, and he'll not get victory anyway.
How big mistakes can cause huge ructions, Just like the previous Prime Minister who shares his name. - James Brown and James Callaghan, both ignored calls within the party for an Autumn election. So if pattern of Callaghan is to be follwed. Bye bye Gordon against a Tory tally of 347 seats.
IN A GENERAL, LABOUR WOULD HAVE WON 401, CONSERVATIVES 188, LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 33 AND THE OTHERS 28. GIVING THE GOVERNMENT A MAJORITY OF 152.
But he knew a lot of things that we didnt know, and that we wouldnt have needed to know until after the election.
So why did Bottler Brown not go for an election?
Surely with a 150 majority in the Commons to return to, he'd have looked forward to a fifth term for Labour, and a guarantee that Labour would deliver the Olympic Games.
Now, one year later it seems like he'll need to go to the end, and he'll not get victory anyway.
How big mistakes can cause huge ructions, Just like the previous Prime Minister who shares his name. - James Brown and James Callaghan, both ignored calls within the party for an Autumn election. So if pattern of Callaghan is to be follwed. Bye bye Gordon against a Tory tally of 347 seats.
The American race seems to be getting closer, or is it?
I pop on the data-clogged base for my Forecast as the final month begins to take hold. Just 29 days left in what has been one of the most eagerly followed contests in recent years.
The Latest college tally prediction put by the Electoral Vote predictor is
BARRACK OBAMA 329 (-9)
JOHN McCAIN 194 (+9)
TIED COUNT 15 (=)
The count still would see a 130 majority for the Democratic Party. Well above my forecast of a majority of around 50 for the Democrats. In polls so far this month, The Democrats lead 47-22 from the 69 votes that would be offered to the winner.
However how good a closure is for the Republicans, many of the polls that give McCain his 194 votes are from before the callous Palin attack on Obama accusing him to be a domestic terrorist.
The Latest college tally prediction put by the Electoral Vote predictor is
BARRACK OBAMA 329 (-9)
JOHN McCAIN 194 (+9)
TIED COUNT 15 (=)
The count still would see a 130 majority for the Democratic Party. Well above my forecast of a majority of around 50 for the Democrats. In polls so far this month, The Democrats lead 47-22 from the 69 votes that would be offered to the winner.
However how good a closure is for the Republicans, many of the polls that give McCain his 194 votes are from before the callous Palin attack on Obama accusing him to be a domestic terrorist.
Sunday, 5 October 2008
Browns battling impresses me but Home Secretary should go.
Over the last few days in the reshuffle and now following the Summit in Paris, I'm half impressed with Gordon Brown, for the first time in a year following the collapse in the polls following David Cameron's simple ripping to shreds of the PM.
The Prime Minister has underlined his determination to fight the credit crunch in the UK and the guarantee increase to £50,000 is arguably can help the majority of the people, but the problem is that it may not actually help some people.
On the other hand, Jacqui Smith needs to go. She talked about being powerless to prevent the resignation of Sir Ian Blair. Sounds as if she's powerless altogether.
And in meaning of a Question Time audience member, "Shape up or we shall KICK YOU OUT"
The Prime Minister has underlined his determination to fight the credit crunch in the UK and the guarantee increase to £50,000 is arguably can help the majority of the people, but the problem is that it may not actually help some people.
On the other hand, Jacqui Smith needs to go. She talked about being powerless to prevent the resignation of Sir Ian Blair. Sounds as if she's powerless altogether.
And in meaning of a Question Time audience member, "Shape up or we shall KICK YOU OUT"
Friday, 3 October 2008
Replying to Jack's comment
If you have read the comment put by Jack Campbell (see Biden beats Palin) I can see what many of his points are and can understand what he means. Yet I still feel that Obama will still be victorious with at least 294 votes giving a majority of 50.
The Republicans gave no notice of their intentions in the VP race until the defeat of Hillary Clinton in the Democrat Primaries.
I can see where the Republicans can get Biden from, someone with experience, possibly to balance out the Obama critique of having no experience. However where does Governor Palin gain any experience. Like many others and I am sure of people in the States wouldn't have heard of her. Her common touch of being a mom seems stupid to me. Though she was stronger in the debate than was expected.
However, the fact that people are now preparing to vote against McCain for the Presidency in the wake of her appointment can only serve to be a possible disaster beacon for the Republicans with a month to go. Is McCain choosing Palin to succeed him as President.
Also a note on my prediction. I am aware of the errors involved but with the way things seem to be falling for the Reps, I seem confident on victory for Obama.
PADSTERS FORECAST 4 October
OBAMA 300
McCAIN 238
MAJORITY OF 72
The Republicans gave no notice of their intentions in the VP race until the defeat of Hillary Clinton in the Democrat Primaries.
I can see where the Republicans can get Biden from, someone with experience, possibly to balance out the Obama critique of having no experience. However where does Governor Palin gain any experience. Like many others and I am sure of people in the States wouldn't have heard of her. Her common touch of being a mom seems stupid to me. Though she was stronger in the debate than was expected.
However, the fact that people are now preparing to vote against McCain for the Presidency in the wake of her appointment can only serve to be a possible disaster beacon for the Republicans with a month to go. Is McCain choosing Palin to succeed him as President.
Also a note on my prediction. I am aware of the errors involved but with the way things seem to be falling for the Reps, I seem confident on victory for Obama.
PADSTERS FORECAST 4 October
OBAMA 300
McCAIN 238
MAJORITY OF 72
Now I know what to expect in the Cabinet
Just to get back into the Cabinet, Poor Mandelson will need to be elevated into the Lords. What cannon-fodder. Shows how silly the system is.
Maybe I should have a go for a place in Cabinet to be Lord Padster
Maybe I should have a go for a place in Cabinet to be Lord Padster
Biden beats Palin
Seems like good news for the Obama camp as Biden seemingly has won the VP Debate in the United States.
On Wednesday I said that it would be a 50 majority for Obama. I still see that happening as Biden defeated Palin.
Mrs Palin played the Mothers touch, (Is that the lipsticked pig Sarah?). And for me thats the only feature that Palin can play on. She's a mother to a son who's serving in Iraq, is to be a grandmother before she's 45 and in the office of VP. To her mind then it means that she's in touch with common America. - Can remind me of some tough council estates of Britain where many of my friends and family come.
Not that its looking good for her as a poll of 60% of people feeling that she lacks the effectiveness of President; 33% said they were now less likely to Vote for McCain in the election.
McCain selected Palin as a get vote tactic in my eyes. - Now it seems like its doing the opposite
LATEST POLL AND COLLEGE VOTE FORECAST
DEMOCRATS: 338 Votes
REPUBLICANS: 185 Votes
15 votes tied. OBAMA TO HAVE A 138 MAJORITY.
(Source electoral-vote.com)
It's seemingly like Obama's going to get a landslide
On Wednesday I said that it would be a 50 majority for Obama. I still see that happening as Biden defeated Palin.
Mrs Palin played the Mothers touch, (Is that the lipsticked pig Sarah?). And for me thats the only feature that Palin can play on. She's a mother to a son who's serving in Iraq, is to be a grandmother before she's 45 and in the office of VP. To her mind then it means that she's in touch with common America. - Can remind me of some tough council estates of Britain where many of my friends and family come.
Not that its looking good for her as a poll of 60% of people feeling that she lacks the effectiveness of President; 33% said they were now less likely to Vote for McCain in the election.
McCain selected Palin as a get vote tactic in my eyes. - Now it seems like its doing the opposite
LATEST POLL AND COLLEGE VOTE FORECAST
DEMOCRATS: 338 Votes
REPUBLICANS: 185 Votes
15 votes tied. OBAMA TO HAVE A 138 MAJORITY.
(Source electoral-vote.com)
It's seemingly like Obama's going to get a landslide
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